Edited in collaboration with my custom GPT to refine syntax, clarity, and structure for improved readability. I do not express my personal beliefs in this newsletter; instead, I aim only to present and format information sourced from credible external references. That said, this is not intended to showcase my writing skills, but rather to help me stay informed in this industry—and, hopefully, help you do the same.

Trump Shifts to Dealmaking Mode on China Ahead of Fall Talks

As the U.S. gears up for another round of trade talks with China, the Trump administration is pivoting from its hardline tariff stance to a strategy more focused on striking an economic agreement. According to the White House, the president is emphasizing diplomacy and pursuing a deal that could increase American access to Chinese markets—particularly in the technology sector.

Notably, the U.S. has lifted its ban on Nvidia’s H20 AI chips to China, signaling a policy shift intended to encourage Chinese purchases of American tech. “The president wants an economic deal,” said Stephen Biegun, former deputy secretary of state. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly added that the administration is working to "level the playing field" for U.S. businesses and rebuild secure supply chains.

Currently, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports remain elevated—between 30% and 50%—as Washington attempts to block transshipment through countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead Beijing’s delegation in talks set for next week, which may lay the groundwork for a Trump-Xi meeting in the fall.

Trump, speaking optimistically, stated, “We’re getting along with China very well. We have a very good relationship.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also expected to meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm next week to negotiate an extension of the tariff truce, which is set to expire August 12.

On Beijing’s end, China appears open to increased U.S. imports—particularly agricultural and energy products—in exchange for eased access to high-tech U.S. exports. However, Chinese policy remains largely unchanged: infrastructure investment and export-driven industrial policy continue to dominate its domestic agenda.

Some U.S. policymakers remain skeptical. Rush Doshi, a former National Security Council official, cautioned that if Trump continues to override his own staff's policies, it may reduce U.S. leverage in negotiations.

Nonetheless, both sides appear to be entering a window of diplomatic opportunity. As Yun Sun from the Stimson Center noted, “Trump wants a deal, and China is willing to play ball.”